Abstract

We analyze district‑level data for paddy, wheat, and millets (2010–2019) across India to identify yield hotspots with consistently high or rising productivity and coldspots with persistent declines. Spatial clustering and regression analyses show that weather, irrigation, fertilizer use, and farmers’ mobile-based information access shape yield performance. Coldspots produce roughly half the yield of hotspots due to lower input and information use. Hotspots cluster in north and southern India, while coldspots dominate the west, east, and northeast. Average yield gaps for paddy, wheat, and millets are 2.0, 2.4, and 1.0 t ha−1, respectively. Closing these gaps could substantially raise farm revenues.

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